Wayzata World Factbook 1996/The World Factbook - 1996 Edition - Wayzata Technology (3079) (1996).iso/mac/TEXT/backgrd/SYRIA.BKG

Text File | 1995-12-29 | 29KB | 551 lines

U.S. Department of State
Background Notes:  Syria, October 1995
Bureau of Public Affairs


October 1995
Official Name:  Syrian Arab Republic

PROFILE

Geography

Area:  185,170 sq. km. (71,504 sq. mi.) (including 1,295 sq. km. of
Israeli-occupied territory); about the size of North Dakota.
Cities:  Capital--Damascus (pop. 4 million).  Other cities--Aleppo (1.5
million), Homs (400,000).
Terrain:  Narrow coastal plain with a double mountain belt in the west;
large, semiarid and desert plateau to the east.
Climate:  Mostly desert; hot, dry sunny summers (June to August) and
mild, rainy winters (December to February) along coast.

People

Nationality:  Noun and adjective--Syrian(s).
Population (1993):  14.3 million.
Growth rate (1993):  3.8%.
Major ethnic groups:  Arabs (90%), Kurds (9%), Armenians, Circassians,
Turkomans.
Religions:  Sunni Muslims (74%), Alawis (12%), Christians (10%), Druze
(3%), and small numbers of other Muslim sects, Jews, and Yazidis.
Languages:  Arabic (official), English and French (widely understood),
Kurdish, Armenian, Aramaic, Circassian.
Education:  Years compulsory--primary, 6 yrs.  Attendance--94%.
Literacy--78% male, 51% female.
Health:  Infant mortality rate--44/1,000 (1993).  Life expectancy--65
yrs. male, 67 yrs. female (1993).
Work force (3.7 million, 1993 est.):  Services (including government)--
36%.  Agriculture--32%.  Industry and commerce--32%.

Government

Type:  Republic, under Arab Socialist Ba'ath party regimes since March
1963.
Independence:  April 17, 1946.
Constitution:  March 12, 1973.
Branches:  Executive--president, three vice presidents, prime minister,
three deputy prime ministers, Council of Ministers (cabinet).
Legislative--unicameral People's Council.  Judicial--Supreme
Constitutional Court, High Judicial Council, Court of Cassation, State
Security Courts.
Administrative subdivisions:  13 provinces and city of Damascus
(administered as a separate unit).
Political parties:  Arab Socialist Resurrection (Ba'ath) Party, Syrian
Arab Socialist Party, Arab Socialist Union, Syrian Communist Party, Arab
Socialist Unionist Movement, Democratic Socialist Union Party.
Suffrage:  Universal at 18.

Economy (1993 est.)

GDP:  $10 billion.
Real growth rate:  8%.
Per capita GDP:  $710.
Natural resources:  Crude oil and natural gas, phosphates, asphalt, rock
salt, marble, gypsum.
Agriculture (19% of GDP):  Products--cotton, wheat, barley, sugar beets,
fruits and vegetables.  Arable land--28%.
Industry (56% of GDP):  Types--mining, manufacturing (textiles, food
processing), construction, petroleum.
Trade:  Exports--$3.4 billion:  petroleum, textiles, phosphates, fruits
and vegetables, cotton.  Major markets--Newly Independent States,
Eastern Europe, EU, Arab countries.  Imports--$4.1 billion:  foodstuffs,
metal and metal products, machinery, textiles, petroleum.  Major
suppliers--France, U.S., Germany, Turkey, Italy, Japan.
Official exchange rate:  Official--11.20 Syrian Pounds (S.P.) =U.S.$1.

PEOPLE

Ethnic Syrians are of Semitic stock.  Syria's population is 90% Muslim--
74% Sunni and 16% other Muslim groups including the Alawi, Shia, and
Druze--and 10% Christian.  There is also a small Syrian Jewish
community.

Arabic is the official, and most widely spoken, language.

Arabs, including some 300,000 Palestinian refugees, make up 90% of the
population.  Many educated Syrians also speak English or French, but
English is the more widely understood.  The Kurds, many of whom speak
Kurdish, make up 9% of the population and live mostly in the north-east
corner of Syria, though sizable Kurdish communities live in most major
Syrian cities as well.  Armenian and Turkic are spoken among the small
Armenian and Turkoman populations.

Most people live in the Euphrates River valley and along the coastal
plain, a fertile strip between the coastal mountains and the desert.
Overall population density is about 140/sq. mi.

Education is free and compulsory from ages 6 to 11.  Schooling consists
of six years of primary education followed by a three-year general or
vocational training period and a three-year academic or vocational
program.  The second three-year period of academic training is required
for university admission.  Total enrollment at post-secondary schools is
over 150,000.  The literacy rate of Syrians aged 15 and older is 78% for
males and 51% for females.

Ancient Syria's cultural and artistic achievements and contributions are
many.  Archaeologists have discovered extensive writings and evidence of
a brilliant culture rivaling those of Mesopotamia and Egypt in and
around the ancient city of Ebla.  Later Syrian scholars and artists
contributed to Hellenistic and Roman thought and culture.  Zeno of Sidon
founded the Epicurean school; Cicero was a pupil of Antiochus of Ascalon
at Athens; and the writings of Posidonius of Apamea influenced Livy and
Plutarch.

Syrians have contributed to Arabic literature and music and have a proud
tradition of oral and written poetry.  Although declining, the world
famous handicraft industry still employs thousands.

HISTORY

Archaeologists have demonstrated that Syria was the center of one of the
most ancient civilizations on earth.  Around the excavated city of Ebla
in northern Syria, discovered in 1975, a great Semitic empire spread
from the Red Sea north to Turkey and east to Mesopotamia from 2500 to
2400 B.C.  The city of Ebla alone during that time had a population
estimated at 260,000. Scholars believe the language of Ebla to be the
oldest Semitic language.

Syria was occupied successively by Canaanites, Phoenicians, Hebrews,
Arameans, Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Nabataeans,
Byzantines, and, in part, Crusaders before finally coming under the
control of the Ottoman Turks.  Syria is significant in the history of
Christianity; Paul was converted on the road to Damascus and established
the first organized Christian Church at Antioch in ancient Syria, from
which he left on many of his missionary journeys.

Damascus, settled about 2500 B.C., is one of the oldest continuously
inhabited cities in the world.  It came under Muslim rule in 636 A.D.
Immediately thereafter, the city's power and prestige reached its peak,
and it became the capital of the Omayyad Empire, which extended from
Spain to India from 661 to 750 A.D., when the Abbasid caliphate was
established at Baghdad, Iraq.

Damascus became a provincial capital of the Mameluke Empire around 1260.
It was largely destroyed in 1400 by Tamerlane, the Mongol conqueror, who
removed many of its craftsmen to Samarkand.  Rebuilt, it continued to
serve as a capital until 1516.  In 1517, it fell under Ottoman rule.

The Ottomans remained for the next 400 years, except for a brief
occupation by Ibrahim Pasha of Egypt from 1832 to 1840.

French Occupation

In 1920, an independent Arab Kingdom of Syria was established under King
Faysal of the Hashemite family, who later became King of Iraq.  However,
his rule over Syria ended after only a few months, following the clash
between his Syrian Arab forces and regular French forces at the battle
of Maysalun.  French troops occupied Syria later that year after the
League of Nations put Syria under French mandate.

With the fall of France in 1940, Syria came under the control of the
Vichy Government until the British and Free French occupied the country
in July 1941.  Continuing pressure from Syrian nationalist groups forced
the French to evacuate their troops in April 1946, leaving the country
in the hands of a republican government that had been formed during the
mandate.

Independence to 1970

Although rapid economic development followed the declaration of
independence of April 17, 1946, Syrian politics from independence
through the late 1960s was marked by upheaval.  A series of military
coups, begun in 1949, undermined civilian rule and led to army colonel
Adib Shishakli's seizure of power in 1951.  After the overthrow of
President Shishakli in a 1954 coup, continued political maneuvering
supported by competing factions in the military eventually brought Arab
nationalist and socialist elements to power.

Syria's political instability during the years after the 1954 coup, the
parallelism of Syrian and Egyptian policies, and the appeal of Egyptian
President Gamal Abdel Nasser's leadership in the wake of the 1956 Suez
crisis created support in Syria for union with Egypt.  On February 1,
1958, the two countries merged to create the United Arab Republic, and
all Syrian political parties ceased overt activities.

The union was not a success, however. Following a military coup on
September 28, 1961, Syria seceded, reestablishing itself as the Syrian
Arab Republic.  Instability characterized the next 18 months, with
various coups culminating on March 8, 1963, in the installation by
leftist Syrian Army officers of the National Council of the
Revolutionary Command (NCRC), a group of military and civilian officials
who assumed control of all executive and legislative authority.  The
takeover was engineered by members of the Arab Socialist Resurrection
Party (Ba'ath Party) which had been active in Syria and other Arab
countries since the late 1940s.  The new cabinet was dominated by Ba'ath
members.

 The Ba'ath takeover in Syria followed a Ba'ath coup in Iraq the
previous month.  The new Syrian Government explored the possibility of
federation with Egypt and Ba'ath-controlled Iraq.  An agreement was
concluded in Cairo on April 17, 1963, for a referendum on unity to be
held in September 1963.  However, serious disagreements among the
parties soon developed, and the tripartite federation failed to
materialize.  Thereafter, the Ba'ath regimes in Syria and Iraq began to
work for bilateral unity.  These plans foundered in November 1963, when
the Ba'ath regime in Iraq was overthrown.

In May 1964, President Amin Hafiz of the NCRC promulgated a provisional
constitution providing for a National Council of the Revolution (NCR),
an appointed legislature composed of representatives of mass
organizations (labor, peasant, and professional unions), a presidential
council (in which executive power was vested), and a cabinet.

 On February 23, 1966, a group of army officers carried out a
successful, intra-party coup, imprisoned President Hafiz, dissolved the
cabinet and the NCR, abrogated the provisional constitution, and
designated a regionalist, civilian Ba'ath Government.  The coup leaders
described it as a "rectification" of Ba'ath Party principles.

The defeat of the Syrians and Egyptians in the June 1967 war with Israel
weakened the radical socialist regime established by the 1966 coup.
Conflict developed between a moderate military wing and a more extremist
civilian wing of the Ba'ath party. The 1970 retreat of Syrian forces
sent to aid the PLO during the "Black September" hostilities with Jordan
reflected this political disagreement within the ruling Ba'ath
leadership.  On November 13, 1970, Minister of Defense Hafiz al-Asad
effected a bloodless military coup, ousting the civilian party
leadership and assuming the role of Prime Minister.

GOVERNMENT

Upon assuming power, Hafiz al-Asad moved quickly to create an
organizational infrastructure for his government and to consolidate
control.  The Provisional Regional Command of Asad's Arab Ba'ath
Socialist Party nominated a 173-member legislature, the People's
Council, in which the Ba'ath Party took 87 seats.  The remaining seats
were divided among "popular organizations" and other minor parties.  In
March 1971, the party held its regional congress and elected a new 21-
member Regional Command headed by Asad.

In the same month, a national referendum was held to confirm Asad as
President for a seven-year term.  In March 1972, to broaden the base of
his government, Asad formed the National Progressive Front, a coalition
of parties led by the Ba'ath Party, and elections were held to establish
local councils in each of Syria's 14 governorates.  In March 1973, a new
Syrian constitution went into effect followed shortly thereafter by
parliamentary elections for the People's Council, the first such
elections since 1962.

The Syrian constitution vests the Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party with
leadership functions in the state and society and provides broad powers
to the President.  The president, approved by referendum for a seven-
year term, is also secretary general of the Ba'ath Party and leader of
the National Progressive Front.  The president has the right to appoint
ministers, to declare war and states of emergency, to issue laws (which,
except in the case of emergency, require ratification by the People's
Council), to declare amnesty, to amend the constitution and to appoint
civil servants and military personnel.

Along with the National Progressive Front, the president decides issues
of war and peace and approves the state's five-year economic plans.  The
National Progressive Front also acts as a forum in which economic
policies are debated and the country's political orientation is
determined.  However, because of Ba'ath Party dominance, the National
Progressive Front has traditionally exercised little independent power.

The Syrian constitution of 1973 requires that the president be Muslim
but does not make Islam the state religion.  Islamic jurisprudence,
however, is required to be the main source of legislation.  The judicial
system in Syria is an amalgam of Ottoman, French and Islamic laws, with
three levels of courts:  courts of first instance, courts of appeals and
the Constitutional Court, the highest tribunal.  In addition, religious
courts handle questions of personal and family law.

The Ba'ath Party emphasizes socialism and secular Arabism.  Although
Ba'ath Party doctrine seeks to build national rather than ethnic
identity, ethnic, religious and regional allegiances remain important in
Syria.

Members of President Asad's own sect, the Alawis, hold most of the
important military and security positions.  In recent years there has
been a gradual decline in the party's preeminence, often in favor of the
leadership of the broader National Progressive Front.  The party is also
now dominated by the military, which consumes a large share of Syria's
economic resources.

Syria is divided administratively into 14 provinces, one of which is
Damascus.  Each province is headed by a governor, whose appointment is
proposed by the minister of the interior, approved by the cabinet and
announced by executive decree.  The governor is assisted by an elected
provincial council.

National Security

President Asad is commander-in-chief of the Syrian armed forces,
comprising some 400,000 troops and a substantial number of reservists.
Males serve 30 months in the military upon reaching the age of 18.
About 30,000 Syrian soldiers are currently deployed in Lebanon.

The break-up of the Soviet Union, long the principal source of training,
materiel, and credit for the Syrian forces, has forced Syria to find
other military suppliers.  Syria has in recent years purchased tanks
from Slovakia and Russia, howitzers from Bulgaria, and SCUD missiles
from North Korea.  Syria received significant financial aid from Gulf
Arab states as a result of its participation in Gulf war, with a sizable
portion of these funds earmarked for military spending.  Besides
sustaining its conventional forces, Syria has sought to improve its
unconventional weapons capability.  While expanding its missile force,
Syria continues to develop its chemical weapons capability.

Principal Government Officials

President--Hafiz al-Asad
Vice President for Foreign Affairs--'Abd al-Halim ibn Sa'id Khaddam
Vice President for Security Affairs--Rif'at al-Asad
Vice President for Educational and Cultural Affairs--Muhammad Zuhayr
Mashariqa
Prime Minister--Mahmud Zu'bi
Foreign Affairs--Farouk al-Shara'
Ambassador to the United States--Walid al-Moualem
Ambassador to the United Nations--Vacant

Syria maintains an embassy in the United States at 2215 Wyoming Avenue,
NW, Washington, DC 20008 (tel.:  [phone], fax:  [phone]).
Consular section hours are 10-2, Monday-Friday.  Syria also has an
honorary consul at 5615 Richmond Ave., Suite 235, Houston, TX 77057
(tel. [phone]).

POLITICAL CONDITIONS

Syria is ruled by an authoritarian regime which exhibits the forms of a
democratic system but in which President Asad wields almost absolute
authority.  His government has held power longer than any other since
independence.  In March 1992, Asad began his fourth seven-year term.
His survival is due partly to a strong desire for political stability as
well as to his government's success in giving groups such as religious
minorities and peasant farmers a stake in society.

The expansion of the government bureaucracy has created a large class
which owes its position to Asad, whose strength is due also to the
army's continued loyalty and the effectiveness of Syria's large internal
security apparatus, both comprised largely of members of Asad's own
Alawi sect.  The several main branches of the security services operate
independently of each other and outside of the legal system.  Each
continues to be responsible for human rights violations.

Key decisions regarding foreign policy, national security, and the
economy are made by President Asad, with counsel from his principal
advisors.  The parliament, in which the Ba'ath Party is guaranteed a
majority, is elected every four years but has no independent authority.
It cannot initiate laws; it may only react to initiatives by the
executive.

All three branches of government are guided by the views of the Ba'ath
party, whose primacy in state institutions is assured by the
constitution.  The Ba'ath platform is proclaimed succinctly in the
party's slogan:  "Unity, freedom, and socialism."  The party is both
socialist--advocating state ownership of the means of industrial
production and the redistribution of agricultural land--and
revolutionary--dedicated to carrying a socialist revolution to every
part of the Arab world.   Founded by Michel 'Aflaq, a Syrian Christian,
and Salah al-Din Al-Bitar, a Syrian Sunni, the Ba'ath Party embraces
secularism and has attracted supporters of all faiths in many Arab
countries, especially Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon.  Since August 1990,
however, the party has tended to de-emphasize socialism and to stress
pan-Arab unity.

Syria has been under a state of emergency since 1963.  Syrian
Governments have justified martial law by the state of war which
continues to exist with Israel and by continuing threats posed by
terrorist groups (radicals, Iraqi and Lebanese).  The current government
has suppressed all challenges to its authority.  Commercial and urban
elements, whose power and status have been eroded by the Ba'ath Party
and its policies, constitute part of the opposition.  The most
significant opposition, however, has come from fundamentalist Sunni
Muslims, who reject the basic values of the secular Ba'ath program and
object to rule by the Alawis, whom they consider heretical.  From the
late 1970s until its suppression in 1982, the arch-conservative Muslim
Brotherhood posed an ongoing armed challenge to the regime.  In response
to an attempted uprising by the brotherhood in February 1982, the
government crushed the fundamentalist opposition centered in the city of
Hama, leveling parts of the city with artillery fire and causing many
thousands of dead and wounded.  Since then, public manifestations of
anti-regime activity have been very limited.

In August 1994 parliamentary elections, the National Progressive Front
won 167 of the 250 seats in the People's Council; most of those 167
seats went to Ba'ath Party members. Independents won the remaining 83
seats.

In December 1991, President Asad won a fourth seven-year term as
president in a popular referendum on his candidacy.  According to
results announced by the Syrian Government, President Asad received a
99% affirmative vote with a reputed 99% of the eligible electorate
voting.

ECONOMY

Syria is a middle-income developing country with a diversified economy
based on agriculture, industry and an expanding energy sector.  During
the 1960s, citing its state socialist ideology, the government
nationalized most major enterprises and adopted economic policies
designed to address regional and class disparities. Despite the positive
growth rates of the past few years, this legacy of state intervention
and price, trade, and foreign exchange controls still hampers economic
growth.  Despite a number of significant reforms and ambitious
development projects of the early 1990s, Syria's economy still is slowed
by large numbers of poorly performing public sector firms, low
investment levels, and relatively low industrial and agricultural
productivity.

 Syria's support for Iran during the Iran-Iraq War isolated it from its
Arab neighbors in the 1980s.  This isolation, combined with the drop in
oil prices, caused a fall in real growth during the 1980s from 10% to an
average of 2.5% per year--less than the population growth rate of 3.8%.
Living standards for most income groups in Syria declined during the
decade.  A severe drought in 1989 compounded economic problems, forcing
use of scarce foreign exchange reserves to import extraordinary amounts
of wheat, flour and other foodstuffs.

Syria's participation in the multinational coalition against Iraq in the
1990-91 Gulf war ended the years of isolation, however, and gave it
access to substantial European, Japanese, and Gulf financial resources
(estimated at $500 million annually from 1990-92, with another $2
billion promised, but not yet delivered by Gulf states in accordance
with the Damascus Declaration of March 1991).  In addition, Syria began
to look to new markets as economic ties with Moscow and Central Europe
began to loosen.

Despite a declining manufacturing sector, by 1992, the effects of
foreign aid, the new investment law of 1991, increased petroleum
production, and exceptionally good harvests combined to boost GDP growth
and enable the government to initiate a number of projects to
rehabilitate the country's deteriorating infrastructure and public
sector enterprises.  Current plans, many of which still lack secured
financing, include upgrades of Syria's antiquated phone system and
severely underpowered electricity grid, as well as steel mill, cement,
and fertilizer plant construction.

Despite the improvements of 1989-92, Syria's economy faces serious
challenges.  With almost 60% of its population under the age of 20, and
a growth rate (3.8%) among the world's highest, higher unemployment
rates seem inevitable.  Oil production likely will level off over the
next decade, and financial aid flows from the Gulf are slowing.  Syrian
economic reforms thus far have been incremental and gradual, with large-
scale privatization not even on the distant horizon.

Commerce has always been important to the Syrian economy, which
benefited from the country's location along major east-west trade
routes.  Syrian cities boast both traditional industries such as weaving
and dried-fruit packing and modern heavy industry.

The bulk of Syrian imports have been raw materials essential for
industry and agriculture, advanced oil-field equipment, and heavy
machinery for the infrastructure construction.  Major exports include
crude oil, refined products, raw cotton, cotton knits, fruits and
vegetables.  Aside from commitments of foreign aid, earnings from oil
exports are one of the government's most important sources of foreign
exchange.

Of Syria's 72,000 square miles, roughly one-third is arable, with 80% of
cultivated areas dependent on rainfall for water. Since 1989, the
agriculture sector has recovered from years of government
inattentiveness and drought.  Most farms are privately owned, but
marketing and transportation are controlled by the government.

The government has redirected its economic development priorities from
industrial expansion into the agricultural sectors in order to achieve
food self-sufficiency, enhance export earnings, and stem rural
migration.  Thanks to sustained capital investment, infrastructure
development, subsidies of inputs, and price supports, Syria has gone
from a net importer of many agricultural products to an exporter of
cotton, fruits, vegetables, and other foodstuffs.  One of the prime
reasons for this turnaround has been the government's investment in huge
irrigation systems in northern and northeastern Syria, part of a plan to
increase irrigated farmland by 38% over the next decade.

Recent dam construction in Turkey has reduced the flow of the Euphrates
to Syria and Iraq.  This has limited Syria's hydroelectric power
generating capacity and caused greater domestic dependence on oil,
Syria's main foreign exchange earner.

Adequate flow of the Euphrates is crucial to Syrian agriculture and
power supply and is expected to be assured in a formal agreement with
Turkey.  Nonetheless, Syria will need to adopt a more comprehensive
conservation program to ensure adequate water supply over the long term.

Syria has produced heavy grade oil from fields located in the northeast
since the late 1960s.  In the early 1980s, a light-grade low-sulphur oil
was discovered near Dayr az Zawr in eastern Syria.  This discovery
relieved Syria of the need to import light oil to mix with domestic
heavy crude in refineries.

Recently, Syrian oil production has been about 580,000 barrels/day, and
reserves are estimated at 1.7 billion barrels).  Syria exports about
300,000 b/d, which brings in approximately $3 billion annually and makes
up 80% of total foreign exchange earnings.

Although its oil reserves are small compared to those of many other Arab
states, Syria's petroleum industry in 1989 helped the country achieve
its first trade surplus in over a decade, and has accounted for almost
three-quarters of the country's export income.  Government plans call
for major investment to exploit recently discovered natural gas reserves
to maximize export revenues by freeing up oil from domestic consumption.

Ad hoc economic liberalization has provided a boost to Syria's small but
dynamic private sector.  In 1990, the government established an official
parallel exchange rate, (neighboring country rate, or NCR) to provide
incentives for remittances and exports through official channels.  This
action improved the supply of basic commodities and contained inflation
by removing risk premiums on smuggled commodities.

Over time, the government has increased the number of transactions to
which the more favorable neighboring country rate applies.  Nonetheless,
government and certain public sector transactions are still conducted at
the official rate of 11.2 Syrian pounds to the U.S. dollar, and
exchange-rate unification remains an elusive goal.

Although private sector firms have not had access to official foreign
exchange since 1984, the government's Investment Law #10 of 1991 permits
retention of foreign exchange earned from exports in order to finance
certain imports of raw materials.  The government retains a monopoly on
"strategic" imports, such as wheat and flour, but it has expanded the
list of unrestricted imports.  This law also grants qualifying investors
tax holidays and duty-free privileges for the import of capital goods
and inputs, permits some foreign exchange transactions at the favorable
neighboring country exchange rate, and encourages joint public/private
sector ventures in which the government holds a passive 25% interest.
Since passage of this law, over 400 new companies have been formed, with
approximately $1.8 billion in new investments.  While these reforms have
attracted offshore savings from Syrian expatriates, Western and Arab
investors are waiting for additional economic liberalization, including
private banking facilities, a unified exchange rate, and development of
a stock market.

Given the poor development of its own capital markets and Syria's lack
of access to international money and capital markets, monetary policy
remains captive to the need to cover the fiscal deficit.  Interest rates
are fixed by law, and most rates have not changed in the last 20 years.
Basic foodstuffs continue to be heavily subsidized, and social services
are provided for nominal charges.

Through two decades of heavy military spending and expansion of the
public sector, Syria accumulated an external debt (to the former Soviet
Union, Iran, and the World Bank among others) conservatively estimated
at $16 billion.  Syria manages its debt by indefinite deferment--it is
badly in arrears on payments to the World Bank and has suspended
clearinghouse arrangements to draw down debt with its largest creditor,
Russia.  Any programmed multilateral debt rescheduling, which usually
depends on a structural adjustment program with the IMF, seems unlikely
in the near future.